I intend to start posting regularly again sometime in the near future. I graduated, and since then have been working close to full-time and doing a bunch of maintenance work for various sites I'm involved with. I intended to write up a long post-electoral analysis, but somehow I never got around to it.
In the mean time I'll leave you with this very well written editorial about Michael Phelps' alleged marijuana use. It's directed at parents specifically, but there's no reason others won't find it interesting and provocative as well.
I'm far too busy as of late to write up an entry of my own, so via vulgarlad:
Final Gallup poll:Obama 53%, McCain 42%...an 11-point margin (among likely voters). Split the undecideds equally and it becomes 55/44, Obama. Give McCain ALL of the undecideds, and it's still Obama by 51%.
Final Wall Street Journal/NBC poll:Obama 51%, McCain McCain 43%. McCain's support among white men & hispanics is significantly lower than that of Dubya's in 2004.
Of course, none of this matters if you don't get out & vote. Need some additional motivation (above & beyond putting an end to 8 years worth of fascist GOP rule) to do so?
-Starbucks is giving out free coffee to people who vote.
-Ben & Jerry's is giving out free ice cream to people who vote.
-Krispy Kreme is giving out free donuts to people who vote.
-Baltimore folks...you can stop by Todd Conner's Pub for a free beer if you vote!
-Seattle people...I've heard that Cupcake Royale is giving out free cupcakes...but I haven't been able to confirm that yet (confirmed! free cupcakes!)
-some Chick-fil-A establishments are giving away free chicken sandwiches. Then again, their food sucks & they're run by creepy uber-zealot christians...so maybe avoid this one...or keep going back and get so many free sandwiches that you bankrupt them. mwahahahaha!
and the best one of all...
-Babeland is giving out free sex toys. Help save the United States AND get off...it's a win-win situation!
I'll resume responding to comments after the election is over.
I may have been wrong about the al-Qaeda story being this election's October Surprise. The Beltway types mostly seem to be ignoring it, despite the McCain camp's tremendously feeble response to it. There's acutally another story which is drawing even more outrage, from Republicans, because it cuts through Sarah Palin's Everywoman persona and reveals actions by the McCain camp which are quite possibly illegal by the very law that bears his name. The details:
Viewer reactions on MSNBC's Morning Joe:
This is from Pat in Ohio. She says, "Mika, I'm a woman and for Sarah Palin to say she's an average everyday woman like me while she's wearing $12,000 suits is utter nonesense and pure B.S. And for you to sit there and say there is nothing wrong with the campaign spending $150,000 on wardrobe for three months is truly offensive. What, they couldn't spend $300 for a nice suit? Maybe you need to come down to earth and realize that the majority of women don't make $150,000 a year and we resent it when you tell us our $300 suits aren't professional enough."
The 2002 campaign finance law that bears McCain's name specifically barred any funds that "are donated for the purpose of supporting the activities of a federal or state office holder" from being used for personal expenses including clothing. (emphasis mine)
Larson is the Karl Rove protégé who’s a principal in the robocalling firm of FLS Connect (the “FLS” stands for Tony Feather, Jeff Larson, and Tom Syndhorst, all veteran Republican political operatives). Larson’s firm is the same one that launched the scurrilous robocalls against John McCain in 2000, and that McCain has now hired to make robocalls connecting Barack Obama to Bill Ayers. He’s also well known in Minnesota for leasing his basement apartment at a steeply discounted rate to embattled Republican Senator Norm Coleman. Evidently, Larson also has quite the eye for women’s fashion.
Every time I think I've seen the full extent of the McCain campaign's stupidity, they surprise me. Even with a good campaign, they'd be struggling, but the huge margins Obama has managed to open up aren't entirely due to the tarnished Republican brand.
Don't get complacent, though. Get out and vote. Early voting is open in most states now. I'll be voting on Friday.
The funny thing is that, if McCain had nominated Crist, who was rumoured to be on his shortlist, for VP, the race would probably be a lot closer right now than it is with Palin. Of course, the odds of the Republicans ever nominating an alleged homosexual for anything are pretty much nada, which explains why it didn't happen.
As I mentioned a few weeks ago, Luntz pointed out, correctly I think, that in today's political climate, the last thing most voters want to hear is partisan attacks. Sure, they'll energise the base, but the majority of people want to hear about issues, want to hear reassurances that everything will be okay. In times of trouble, people want more help from the government, not less. Which makes McCain's attacks on Obama as a "socialist" particularly quaint, especially seeing as his party has just effected the biggest nationalisation in our government's history.
I don't think attacks like these are going to stick. Most people are going to see the attacks on Powell for what they are - out-and-out racism. While this will certainly appeal to the base, the base isn't as large as it was four years ago.
However, Greg Palast reports that ten million voters have been purged from the voting rolls. Palast has done reporting on electoral fraud by the GOP in the 2000 and 2004 elections, clearly demonstrating a systematic disenfranchisement of voters that hasn't been reported in the mainstream media, which Palast feels resulted in fraudulent results in both elections (and he presents subsantial amounts of evidence to back up his point). Josh Marshall has more.
The single biggest possible to the GOP would be to hand them a decisive loss even with the inevitable tampering they're trying to enact. Kos has it absoltutely right; crush their spirits. Go out, volunteer for the campaign, donate money, do everything you can to close out the home stretch. It's time to take this country back.
ETA: Apparently the second Powell video doesn't work in Firefox; I had to load it in Explorer. Sorry about that.
to various political campaigns, it's getting close to the point beyond which donations won't make much, if any, difference. Daily Kos has been especially good about drawing attention to races which deserve it, as has MyDD. I know in economically tough times (although the Dow jumped 900 points today, a record, though who knows whether it'll stay there) donating to a political campaign often seems like the last thing on anyone's minds, but on the other hand you can bet corporate interests who have nothing in common with you are going to do their best to funnel in as much cash as they can, as well. Part of the reason politics have been shifting to the left is because the Internet has made people increasingly able to find candidates who are worthy of their cash directly and fund them, and having a filibuster-proof majority (60 seats) in the Senate would be especially nice; a few small campaign donations could make the difference between, for example, having guaranteed health care for all Americans and not, or reforming America's tremendously regressive tax code and not. Seeing as the President needs the approval of Congress to enact legislation, these races are important and could make the difference between whether America gets a new New Deal or languishes in the same "bipartisan" clusterfuck that has resulted in Congress doing nothing the past two years (remember, Grover Norquist referred to bipartisanship as date rape). I've donated around $75 over the last year myself, and will probably be donating a bit more this weekend. If you can't spare the cash, obviously don't worry about it, but if you can, it's the sort of investment that could come back to help you in a big way if it helps get people elected who can help enact progressive legislation.
Finally, congrats to Krugman on his well-deserved Nobel. Not only is his economic analysis generally top-notch, but it's also worth remembering that for years he was literally the only sane voice in the entire mainstream American media. I'm sure the Swedes had that thought in mind when they selected him as their recipient this year (in addition to making up for all the crazy Ayn Rand worshippers who received Nobels in the seventies, no doubt). DeLong has more. Much, muchmore. See also Ed Gleaser, and, via The Economist's View, aheapingshitloadoftrulygreatKrugmanpieces.
William F. Buckley's son, Christopher Buckley, endorses Obama wholeheartedly. Read the whole piece; it's superb. (I'm linking to John Cole's blog rather than Buckley's because I can't get Buckley's to load right now; I'm not sure if it's just my connection, but Cole has a link to the original anyway).
Arch-conservative columnist Kathleen Parker is, like me, concerned about the behaviour of crowds at McCain-Palin rallies lately. She also jumped off the Palin tire swing in a big way last week, you may remember, so perhaps she's leaving the extremist rhetoric behind for more sensible waters. I'm not going to be that optimistic though.
In other news, how about that stock market? To their credit, it looks like the government is finally starting to come around to my way of thinking and talking about nationalising part of the banking system. Also, Nouriel Roubini is reporting that Barney Frank and several other members of Congress have actually been trying to bring the Treasury around to this way of thinking since Paulson made his initial proposal, so maybe they deserve somewhat more credit than I've been giving them.
The idea of a government database of citizens is very, very scary to me, and this is why.
In other news, the sheriff of Cook County, Illinois, goes onto my Good People list for his actions today. I hope more people in positions of power start doing things like this.
Stock market took another record-setting dive today - the Dow Jones was apparently down 900 points at its worst point, according to CNN when I was eating. Unfortunately I can't find links for this now that I'm back at the Internet, so alas and alack.
With the economy floundering as badly as it is, it's probably a good idea to keep up with the commentary of actual economists. Some helpful resources for me in recent times have been Atrios, Nouriel Roubini, The Economist's View, Brad DeLong, Paul Krugman and EconoSpeak. Dean Baker has been posting a number of informative pieces at TPM Cafe as well. Note, of course, that, as would be expected with any wide variety of sources, these economists do not always agree with one another, and I must once again express my view that economics is still as much an art as it a science, but on the whole, their individual predictions have been accurate over the past eight years far more often than they've been inaccurate, and thus I think it's safe to conclude that they have a reasonably better idea of what they're talking about than most of the talking heads you routinely see on TV.
Am I the only one who finds it interesting that the Weather Underground are being portrayed as America-hating terrorists when they never actually killed anyone and actually went to the trouble of telling people what they were going to attack in advance? For people who are charged of hating America, they sure did a lot to ensure they didn't hurt actual Americans. Or, as Dan Berger argues in his book, Outlaws in America:
The group purposefully and successfully avoided injuring anyone, not just civilians but armed enforcers of the government. Its war against property by definition means that the WUO was not a terrorist organization — it was, indeed, one deeply opposed to the tactic of terrorism.
Seems a bit different from, you know, driving someone out of town because you think she's a witch. Or, for that matter, plotting to mudrer journalists, as McCain's close friend G. Gordon Liddy apparently did in the '70s after Nixon said "We need to get rid of this Anderson guy."
In the latest "Batshit Insane McCain Supporters" news, this is just Kafkaesque. And a good indicator of why I think corporations have way, way too much power and way, way too little accountability.
I'll watch the debate later. I really don't think I can deal with much more political crap right now.
Meanwhile, Naomi Klein addresses the University of Chicago. You know, the place where Milton Friedman and his whackjob ideas that selfishness is a good thing got their start. I refuse to excerpt because you should read the whole thing.
The Dow plunged 790 points today, a new record. Granted, it recovered to being only 360 points down by closing time, but it pretty substantially undercuts the notion that the bailout (which passed, by the way; I was too shattered to note it this weekend) has helped.
Bearing this in mind, it would be instructive to review the record of the man John McCain has referred to as "a genius" when it comes to the economy, Phil Gramm. Despite his recent conversion to denouncing deregulation (after a career full of championing it), John McCain has refused to rule out the possibility that Gramm will be his Treasury Secretary.
I couldn't bring myself to watch the entire "debate" on Thursday night. If you can even call it a debate; Juan Cole argues that you shouldn't, and he's right. I'm having a hard time imagining a more insipid format for a discussion of politics; the two candidates may as well not have even been in the same room for how little they talked to each other. Palin lied, of course, a lot. Josh Marshall has more; you'll have to scroll down several screens for the debate-relevant material.
Also, Krugman weighs in on what an unmitigated disaster McCain's health care plan would be.
I'd weigh in on the smear campaign McCain is now resorting to, or Obama's responses thereto, but frankly it doesn't interest me particularly much. Virtually every time McCain has gone negative it's backfired on him; the only time it benefited him was immediately after the convention, when they were still riding on the bounce. I have no reason to expect the American public's sentiments to have changed since then. In the midst of an economic crisis, voters want to hear about the economy, not about vague associations candidates had years ago.
so the bailout passed the Senate. Sigh. You can still write your representative and tell them to shoot it down.
Glenn Greenwald has an excellent takedown of Steven Pearlson (and by proxy, everyone else who thinks the bailout needs to be passed immediately) which points out again just how little support there actually is for the idea. Robert Reich has more.
I'm not going to post much else tonight, probably - I'm TiVoing the debate and will comment when I have the opportunity to watch it. On the off chance you feel like giving yourself alcohol poisoning tonight, here are a number of good drinking games for the debate.
Voters are turning against the Republican Party because on the whole, they get the impression that Republicans simply don't care about the economic problems of common people. Given the Republicans' tendency to give massive subsidies to large corporations who shouldn't need them, they're right. This bailout bill, representing some $700 billion of taxpayers' money, represents the single largest corporate subsidy in history, and contains no provisions to enforce Congressional oversight of that money. Simply put, voting for this bill as a Democrat will undercut the single most important frame working in Democrats' favor this election.
I certainly agree that our economy is in a state of crisis, but acting swiftly is not necessarily the best course of action, especially if it means all options have not been thoroughly debated. The plan currently being voted on in Congress is nothing more than socialism for the rich - and we've had nearly three decades of that as it is. Economic history clearly demonstrates that "trickle-down economics" does not, in any meaningful sense, happen; the Gini coefficient of the United States - one of the most reliable indicators of the gap between rich and poor - has consistently increased the more trickle-down economics has been applied. The best way to protect America's economy is to shore up the lower and middle classes, something that this plan does not, in any meaningful sense, do. I urge you, for the sake of your elected position, to vote it down. If you do not, odds are that you will see a substantial primary challenge from someone who would have.
And here's one for Republicans. They might actually be persuaded to listen because, given poll numbers, they're terrified for their jobs, as they have to run away from the other Republicans in congress, away from Bush, away from McCain, and away from the Democrats. In short, they may well be persuaded to outflank the Democrats from the left, but you have to be careful about how you word yourself or else they'll feel like dirty socialists and will bolt. You'll obviously want to adapt the bit about Florida to your own state, unless of course you also live in Florida.
Voters, including in Florida (which, according to a recent poll, trends Obama by eight points, a staggering margin for a state that went solidly Republican in 2004), have been turning against the Republican Party because on the whole, they get the impression that Republicans simply don't care about the economic problems of common people. This may not necessarily be true, but voting in favor of this bailout is likely only to reinforce the popular perception that Republicans are more likely than Democrats to give massive subsidies to large corporations who, they feel, shouldn't need them. This bailout bill, representing some $700 billion of taxpayers' money, will represent the single largest corporate subsidy in history, and contains no provisions to enforce Congressional oversight of that money. Simply put, voting for this bill as a Republican will reinforce the single most devastating frame being employed against Republicans right now, and almost guarantees an incumbent to be thrown out of office.
I certainly agree that our economy is in a state of crisis, but acting swiftly is not necessarily the best course of action, especially if it means all options have not been thoroughly debated. The plan currently being voted on in Congress is overwhelmingly opposed by the general public and is likely to be perceived as nothing more than socialism for the rich - and the perception seems to be growing that we've had nearly three decades of that as it is. Certainly, the Gini coefficient of the United States - one of the most reliable indicators of the gap between rich and poor - has increased substantially in the past three decades, which supplies substantial grounds for attacks on Republicans; if you vote for this bill, it will only reinforce populist sentiments that Republicans do not care about the problems of common people. This plan does not, in any meaningful sense, shore up the middle and lower classes, nor does it provide a framework for fixing the shattered regulations that, in an overwhelming majority of people's view, enabled the crisis to happen in the first place. I urge you, for the sake of your elected position, to vote this bill down and argue in favor of something more populist. If you do not, odds are that, come the next election, you will find yourself out of a job.
It adds a tax cut which the House already rejected because it gave too much back to the people who caused this crisis
There are no enforcement provisions for the so-called oversight groups meant to monitor the Treasury's use of taxpayer funds
There are no provisions for punishing government officials or corporate executives who embezzle money
There are no provisions anywhere in the entire bill to force banks and lenders to rewrite mortgages to avoid foreclosures
There are no provisions forcing the beneficiaries of this bill to repay taxpayers after the economy stabilisies
It proposes restoring the 'mark to market' rules which made it so easy for Enron, Halliburton and other companies to cook their books
Once again, write your congressmen and tell them that you can put lipstick on a pile of shit, but it's still a pile of shit. Hunter has more.
I'll update on the presidential horse race soon - frankly, it's not as important as this bill. Whoever gets into office will have $1 trillion less to spend on things that actually matter if this turd sandwich gets passed.
As I'm sure everyone suspected it would. Atrios has used the metaphor of Lucy holding out the football to illustrate the Repubilcans' commitment to bipartisanship; considering one prominent Republican (I think it was Grover Norquist) equated bipartisanship to rape, we shouldn't really expect anything else from them.
DeLong suggests we should follow the Swedish model; they had an almost identical crisis in 1992, and responded by effectively nationalising their banks. Krugman agrees, as do I; Nouriel Roubini is somewhere near agreeing as well.
Meanwhile, Naomi Klein points out that while the Shock Doctrine has historically been used to push through overwhelmingly regressive economic policies, there's no reason it can't be used to push through progressive policies as well. Digby agrees, as does Perlstein; again, I can't find anything to fault with this argument. Moreover, it seems likely that passing a new New Deal would ensure a solid Democratic majority for quite some time.
Other arguments worth paying attention to, not all entirely in agreement with what I've posted so far, come from James K. Galbraith, Dean Baker, and Doug Henwood. I'd encourage everyone who reads this to read all the material I've linked, then write up their congressmen by Thursday, when Congress reconvenes.
Nouriel Roubini has been among the most prescient economists in recent years. So, you'd think that Congress would want to pay attention to what he has to say about the current crisis, right? Well, you'd be wrong.
The second link contains the fax numbers of a large number of senators. If you have the ability to send faxes, I'd recommend contacting each one of them and voicing your opposition to the current plan. I, unfortunately, do not at this point. I'll try to email them later; if I find out a way to do so in time, I'll link you to it.